Monday, September 15, 2008

What about Global Warming?

I think the discussion of global warming ought to proceed from a couple of "axioms". First of all, let's stop worrying about whether or not human activity is principally responsible, or completely responsible, or partially responsible, or whatever, for global warming. I personally believe the data indicating a principal role for human causes, but look: it doesn't matter anymore. No one paying atttention can doubt the overwhelming data that the earth's climate (atmosphere and ocean) is warming. It doesn't make any difference to what we might do, if anything, what the cause is or was. Let's just agree that the earth is warmer than it used to be and getting warmer.

Second, let's agree that people aren't really good making fundamental changes to nature on a large scale and really controlling, or even predicting the outcome. That is, we try to change the course of rivers, and things dry up and things flood and things get bad downstream. Or we try to make a healthy wetlands and wind up with a fetid swamp. So whatever we might try to do to mitigate the effects of climate change ought to be done with caution and a realization that things are likely to work out in ways that we cannot predict.

OK, then. That said, what can we do? What should we do?

A good first step would be to control human causes for warming but maybe that won't be particularly useful. Maybe at this point we're too far along on the warming trend to prevent or moderate the effects. One very useful role the government can play is to sponsor research to develop really useful models for what's happening, and what's going to happen. We know that warming of the atmosphere is really the addition of energy. That can mean a higher mean temperature or a greater amplitude of hot/cold oscillation, or both. So where will winters be colder? Where will summers be warmer? Where will water be scarcer? Where will flooding be greater? What's going to happen. If we can't do anything to stop it happening, can we, should we, do something to deal with it? Should we monkey around with species and distribution (remembering that we're not very good at it)? Should we plan for and get ready for the mass relocation of human populations?

I have my opinions but I haven't heard anyone else discussing these things.